TFM Midday Update 11-30-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 5 @ 6.61
Corn is trading lower on sparse news, but the sluggish pace of US corn exports has held prices back as cheaper Brazilian corn gets picked up
For the year, export sales are down 48% compared to last year and inspections are 33% behind last year’s pace
Domestic demand for feed and ethanol has mainly been keeping prices firm and basis strong
China has not been a buyer of US corn in months, and their January corn on the Dalian exchange is trading at the equivalent of $10.36 per bushel

Jan soybeans up 2 @ 14.62
Soybeans are trading higher following a flash sale this morning to China of 136,000 tons for delivery in the 22/23 marketing year
Continued Chinese purchases of beans are encouraging as there has been concern that they would attempt to hold out for Brazil’s new crop
Crude oil continues to move higher after OPEC began mentioning production cuts, and this has given support to bean oil and soybeans
Soybean sales are higher than a year ago, but total inspections are down 10% from last year even after last week’s 74.3 mb inspections number

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Dec wheat up 6 @ 7.63, Dec KC up 3 @ 9.04, & Dec MNPLS up 1 @ 9.40
Wheat is trading higher despite lower corn which it typically follows which is encouraging
US export business for wheat has been abysmal as tight supplies and the high US dollar make US wheat very expensive, and this has limited wheat’s gains
Despite US and world wheat stocks nearing a 15-year low, non-commercials continue piling onto their short positions and easily controlling the thinly traded market
Turkey, Algeria, and Pakistan have all purchased Russian wheat which is significantly cheaper than US

Dec LC up 0.275 @ 152.950 & Jan FC up 0.350 @ 178.350
Both live and feeder cattle are trading higher as higher cash is expected this week and boxed movement was mixed
The majority of asking prices in the South are 156 or higher but are still not established in the North, but significant business should get done today
Slaughter pace is running strong ahead of the holidays
Choice cuts up 0.21 and select down 2.71
Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/29: up 1.66 @ 178.85

Dec hogs up 1.200 @ 82.275 & Dec pork cutout up 0.050 @ 90.000
Hogs are trading higher following an increase in cash but a drop in the cutout of 3.84
December futures are about 2 dollars lower than cash, so futures have the potential to move higher as expiration approaches
The weakness of the cutouts has not had an impact on slaughter pace which has remained brisk as packers build their inventory ahead of the holidays
National Direct Afternoon report rose 0.69
Hog slaughter projected at 492K
CME Lean Hog Index for 11/30: down 0.42 @ 84.21

Amanda Brill