TFM Midday Update 12-02-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 11 @ 6.39
Corn is trading lower and has broken out of its range to the downside on follow-through selling from yesterday where non-commercials sold around 5,000 contracts of corn
Corn export sales were weak yesterday at 23.7 mb compared to the 34.7 mb needed each week to hit the USDA forecast
Total commitments are down 48% from a year ago but the USDA’s export forecast is only down 13% from last year
Yesterday the US dollar traded at its lowest levels since June 29 which should be bullish as it makes US products cheaper

Jan soybeans up 9 @ 14.39
Beans are trading higher and recovering from yesterday’s selloff which brought them to the bottom of their trading range
Bean oil is still lower after closing limit down yesterday but the reaction to the EPA biofuel data seems like an overreaction and it wouldn’t be surprising to see prices recover
Yesterday China bought 10 cargoes of beans with 4 from the US for December and 6 from Brazil for Feb/March
There are feelings that the USDA may need to lower their soybean export expectations by 50-100 mb in the next WASDE report

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Dec wheat down 16 @ 7.43, Dec KC down 16 @ 8.87, & Dec MNPLS down 10 @ 9.45
Wheat has fallen sharply again this morning and remains in the downward trend it has been in since the beginning of October
Wheat export sales were only 5.7 mb last week which is the second smallest weekly total for that date since 1996
Total commitments of 494.2 mb are down 6% from last year while the USDA is calling for a 3% decline from last year
Funds continue to add to their short position and have brought March futures to their lowest levels since February

Dec LC up 0.125 @ 153.175 & Jan FC up 0.625 @ 181.700
Both live and feeder cattle are higher with feeders seeing the bulk of the gains as corn falls
The trend lower in boxed beef is disheartening, but cash traded 3 to 4 dollars higher in the North which is a big move from last week
Packers are being difficult in the South and wanting to keep cash steady as boxed beef falls
Choice cuts down 1.31 and select down 0.01
Cattle slaughter projected at 123K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/1: @ 178.40

Dec hogs up 0.375 @ 82.750 & Dec pork cutout UNCH @ 90.650
Hogs are trading lower this morning following lower cash and another drop in the cutout of 0.81
Last week’s pork exports were poor at 20,100 mt which was half of what they were the previous week
Hog weights increased 0.7 lbs last week for an average of 285.1, but are still 5.7 lbs below a year ago
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.80
Hog slaughter projected at 487K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/2: down 0.65 @ 83.24

Amanda Brill