TFM Midday Update 12-12-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

March corn up 10 @ 6.54
Heavy snow in the Dakotas over the next few days will likely impact logistics
Argentina corn planting pace is 8% behind average
Stochastics show upward momentum for March corn
USDA decreased US corn exports on Friday’s report by 75 mb (within the expected range), but there could be further cuts down the road

January soybeans down 16 @ 14.68
Argentina received some good rains over the weekend, pressuring soybeans, but their forecast now calls for 10 days without rain
Argentina soybean planting pace is 9% behind average
Adding to pressure in soybeans is the decline in Malaysian palm oil by more than 6%
There has been a surge in covid cases after China relaxed their policy
Argentina’s soy dollar program had led to more farmer selling there

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March Chi wheat up 22 @ 7.56, March KC up 26 @ 8.59, & March MNPLS up 13 @ 9.14
Bombing in Odessa may be adding to premium in wheat (and corn) – after affecting the power grid the grain elevators were offline, but power to them has since been restored
Friday’s WASDE report kept US ending stocks at a 15 year low of 571 mb
Private analysts have Russia’s wheat crop projected around 100 mmt, but the USDA kept their number unchanged on Friday at 91 mmt
Storms this week could bring much needed moisture into the US southern Plains
Funds are estimated to be short 72,000 contracts of Chicago wheat

Feb LC up 0.300 @ 155.850 & Jan FC down 0.275 @ 183.650
Live cattle were sharply higher Friday and are mildly higher at midday, but may go on to test contract highs
Cash cattle were $1 to $2 higher in the south but $2 lower in the north
On Friday the USDA left beef production unchanged (from November) at 26.276 million pounds
Choice cuts up 1.65 and select up 0.71
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/9: down 0.01 @ 179.22

Feb hogs down 0.950 @ 83.050 & Feb pork cutout down 0.750 @ 91.650
Traders may be willing to buy into the market given stronger cash and cutouts Friday, along with Feb and Apr contracts holding support
Holiday demand appears strong but much of the pork may already be in retail locations
December hog futures expire on Tuesday and February will be the front month
National Direct Afternoon report increased 1.96
Hog slaughter projected at 490K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/12: down 0.48 @ 81.99

Brandon Doherty