TFM Midday Update 12-15-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

  • March corn down 1 @ 6.49
  • Private exporters reported sales of 101,600 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 22/23 marketing year
  • USDA reported an increase of 37.8 mb of corn export sales for 22/23
  • The Fed issued a 50 basis point interest rate increase
  • Weekly ethanol production fell 16,000 barrels per day last week to 1.061 million bpd
  • Argentina’s corn crop is estimated to be 40% planted by the end of the week
  • Brazil’s November corn exports were 6.7 mmt (double that of last year)

SOYBEANS

  • January soybeans down 9 @ 14.73
  • USDA reported an increase of 108.1 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23
  • NOPA crush expected to be 181.5 mb (this would be a new November record)
  • Palm oil is trading near recent lows
  • China’s October soy imports are said to be 4.1 mmt which is 19% lower than a year ago
  • The comments from the Federal Reserve suggest that inflation is still a concern and this may have a negative impact on demand

 

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WHEAT

  • March Chi wheat up 1 @ 7.50March KC down 2 @ 8.48March MNPLS up 1 @ 9.18
  • USDA reported an increase of 17.2 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange reduced their estimate of Argentina’s wheat crop by 300,000 mt to 11.5 mmt
  • Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower yesterday
  • Algeria is said to have purchased 500,000 mt of wheat (most thought to come from the Black Sea)
  • Russian FOB wheat is about $65 per metric ton cheaper than US HRW wheat

CATTLE

  • Feb LC down 0.500 @ 155.200 & Jan FC up 0.375 @ 183.975
  • Beef net export sales of 10,900 mt for 2022 and 2,900 mt for 2023
  • No cash cattle trade took place yesterday
  • Packers may not be willing to bid more than steady
  • Packers may reduce slaughter through the end of the year on demand concerns
  • Choice cuts down 4.88 and select up 1.23
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/14: down 0.50 @ 179.47

HOGS

  • Feb hogs down 1.025 @ 82.375 & Feb pork cutout down 0.725 @ 91.200
  • Pork net export sales of 14,400 mt for 2022 and 7,700 mt for 2023
  • February futures take over as the front month today
  • A significant drop in cutouts was unsupportive (down 6.87)
  • Hog weights are 5.3 pounds below last year
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.85
  • Hog slaughter projected at 490K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 12/15: up 0.06 @ 81.68

Author

Brandon Doherty

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