TFM Midday Update 12-21-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn up 7 @ 6.59
Corn is trading higher and is being supported by higher wheat prices as the winter storms approach
Freezing temperatures are pushing through the northwestern Plains and snow into the Midwest, and warmer temps will likely hold off until the new year
Port shipping data showed Chinese state-owned grain trader COFCO loading 1.15 mmt of corn at Brazilian ports for shipment to China over the past few weeks
Without solid export demand, corn prices may struggle to stay at current levels

Jan soybeans up 3 @ 14.81
Soybeans are trading slightly higher today, but the gains are not as impressive as those in corn and wheat which are getting a boost from winter storms
Private estimates of Argentine soybeans production are being cut from the USDA’s official estimate as drought remains a problem and planting is majorly delayed
Brazilian growing areas are enjoying below-normal temperatures and above-normal rains giving more arguments for a record crop
The March crush spread has rebounded and is trading 2.22 per bushel and nearing the contract highs from November

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Mar Chi wheat up 18 @ 7.68, Mar KC up 13 @ 8.60, & Mar MNPLS up 6 @ 9.22
Wheat is trading sharply higher as the winter storms approach potentially severely damaging US crops
Ukrainian President Zelensky is in Washington DC which may inflame tensions further between the US and Russia
Argentina’s wheat crop is plagued by drought and Australia’s record waterlogged crop is about to be harvested but much of that will be feed grade or worse
World supply and underlying fundamentals remain bullish for wheat but it is just not enough to get non-commercials to exit their short positions

Feb LC up 0.900 @ 155.950 & Jan FC up 0.025 @ 183.450
Both live and feeder cattle are trading higher today as corn rallies and the winter storms approach
Producers are likely attempting to get business done before the cold winds and snow hit their herds and harm the cattle
Choice boxed beef remains trending higher which should give packers the incentive to bid up for cash
Choice cuts up 1.22 and select fell 4.67
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/20: down 1.50 @ 178.01

Feb hogs up 2.575 @ 86.850 & Feb pork cutout up 2.175 @ 94.525
Hogs are trading sharply higher on technical buying despite cash only rising 4 cents and the cutout falling 1.47
Wheat is trading higher pulling corn up along with it which is having a bullish effect on hogs
The winter storm may have packers purchasing hogs more rapidly to get them to slaughter before the blizzards arrive
National Direct Afternoon report rose 0.04
Hog slaughter projected at 491K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/21: down 0.69 @ 80.86

Amanda Brill