TFM Midday Update 12-22-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn down 2 @ 6.61
Corn is trading slightly lower today following slow export sales and disappointing ethanol data from yesterday that saw production lower and stocks higher than a year ago
Brazil is essentially out of corn supplies until their 2nd harvest, and there is uncertainty regarding Black Sea exports coming from Russia and Ukraine
Net sales of corn were 636,800 mt for 22/23, and exports of 958,700 mt were primarily to China who bought 415,300 mt
Last week ethanol productions slipped by 3% to 1.021 bpd, and stocks remained 16% higher than a year ago

Jan soybeans down 12 @ 14.70
Soybeans are trading lower as expectations for exports begin to become a concern and beneficial rains fall in Argentina and parts of southern Brazil
Net soybean sales were 736,000 mt for 22/23, and total net sales for 23/23 were 140,000 mt
Exports of 1,989,500 mt were primarily to China at 1,480,400 mt
Brazilian growing areas are enjoying below-normal temperatures and above-normal rains giving more arguments for a record crop

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Mar Chi wheat down 4 @ 7.64, Mar KC up 7 @ 8.71, & Mar MNPLS down 1 @ 9.27
Wheat is trading lower after more poor export sales with net sales at 334,200 mt for 22/23 and exports at just 235,300 mt
Ukrainian President Zelensky is in Washington DC which may inflame tensions further between the US and Russia
Argentina’s wheat crop is plagued by drought and Australia’s record waterlogged crop is about to be harvested but much of that will be feed grade or worse
World supply and underlying fundamentals remain bullish for wheat, but it is just not enough to get non-commercials to exit their short positions

Feb LC down 0.225 @ 155.900 & Jan FC up 0.025 @ 183.725
Both live and feeder cattle are trading quietly with fats slightly lower and feeders a bit higher as grain slips
The winter storm has provided some support as feedlots may delay marketing plans to focus on animal welfare
The upcoming Cattle on Feed report is expected to be bullish and estimates are 97.1% for on feed, 95.8% for placements, and 101.0% for marketings
Choice cuts down 0.19 and select up 2.39
Cattle slaughter projected at 109K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/21: up 0.13 @ 178.14

Feb hogs up 0.025 @ 88.350 & Feb pork cutout down 0.875 @ 94.900
Hogs are trading higher this morning on follow-up buying from yesterday’s rally that saw Feb hogs gaining 4 dollars by the close
Despite the decline in cash and a drop in the cutout of 1.01, traders are still optimistic about holiday trade and expectations of a bullish hogs and pigs report
Pork export sales were very strong last week at 58,700 mt for 2022 and 16,100 mt for 2023, with exports at 32,400 mt
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.40
Hog slaughter projected at 359K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/22: down 0.29 @ 80.57

Amanda Brill