TFM Midday Update 12-23-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn up 6 @ 6.66
Corn is trading higher this morning ahead of the Christmas holiday as sub-zero temperatures, rain, and snow batter the Midwest
With poor conditions throughout the country and travel limited, export demand and ethanol demand will likely slow down until the weather clears
FOB corn prices for January are 5% cheaper in Brazil than in the US, and while that gap has narrowed, corn exports can be expected to be slow for another month
Argentina’s corn crop has received a good to excellent rating of just 15%, down 2% from the previous week, and only 25% of the crop has been planted

Jan soybeans up 13 @ 14.81
Soybeans are trading higher today but have struggled to stay above the 14.85 level as technical resistance gets met
Brazil’s bean crop is on track to be potentially a record high 5.6 billion bushels, and so far weather forecasts look favorable
Argentina on the other hand is dealing with extreme drought and only has 61% of the crop planted, with only 12% receiving a good to excellent rating
Based on March futures, the value of crushed soybeans exceeds the value of uncrushed by 3.24, and incentive for processors to buy cash beans

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Mar Chi wheat up 13 @ 7.75, Mar KC up 6 @ 8.72, & Mar MNPLS up 8 @ 9.30
Wheat is trading higher and is on track for a higher weekly close for the second week in a row ahead of the holidays
This morning’s sub-zero temperatures are adding serious risk of winter kill for the HRW wheat crop in the southwestern Plains, triggering buying
Ukrainian President Zelensky’s visit to Washington DC has added more uncertainty to the Black Sea export corridor and is adding premium to both wheat and corn
Ukraine’s wheat crop is estimated to be half the size or less of their crop from the previous year as the fighting continues

Feb LC up 0.250 @ 156.150 & Jan FC down 0.175 @ 183.800
Both live and feeder cattle are trading higher following upward momentum in boxed beef and an increase in grain prices
Yesterday’s export sales report was poor with only 4,500 mt reported
Feedlots have continued to hold out for steady cash which is where most business got done in the South yesterday
Choice cuts up 0.35 and select up 5.52
Cattle slaughter projected at 111K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/22: down 0.31 @ 177.83

Feb hogs down 1.275 @ 87.800 & Feb pork cutout down 1.175 @ 94.900
Hogs are trading lower this morning ahead of the Christmas holiday despite a big jump in the cutouts of 6.31, but a slight decline in cash
The winter storm is hindering the movement of hogs to market which would explain the large jump in cutouts
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimates show all hogs and pigs on Dec 1 at 98.5% of a year ago, kept for breeding at 99.7%, and marketing at 98.4%
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.44
Hog slaughter projected at 372K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/23: down 0.90 @ 79.67

Amanda Brill