TFM Midday Update 12-29-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn down 4 @ 6.79
Corn met with resistance around 6.85 yesterday and is now trading lower, but this end of year rally has come despite slow exports and sluggish ethanol demand
Basis remains historically high even though exports and ethanol demand is slow and is most likely due to producer’s unwillingness to sell
Yesterday’s report from the CME showed 20.4 mb of deliverable corn stocks on hand, down 19% from this time a year ago
Heavy rains are forecast to fall around the lower Mississippi River tomorrow and into next week which should help with water levels and barge traffic

Jan soybeans up 2 @ 15.09
Soybeans were higher in the premarket but have slipped and are now trading unchanged to slightly higher
Trade is watching South American weather closely and while Brazil is still sitting pretty, Argentina may have chances for rain this weekend which is pressuring beans
March beans closed above 15 dollars yesterday for the first time in 6 months despite an upcoming Brazilian harvest that is estimated around a record 5.58 mb
Bean meal is lower while bean oil is higher despite crude being down a dollar, but the value of crushed beans is still 3.20 above uncrushed based on March futures

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Mar Chi wheat down 14 @ 7.72, Mar KC down 17 @ 8.66, & Mar MNPLS down 16 @ 9.18
Wheat is trading sharply lower after 6 consecutive higher closes as rains are forecast to miss the already dry southwestern Plains
US wheat export demand for 22/23 is at its lowest levels in over 50 years as supplies are tight and Russian wheat is being sold at a serious discount
Yesterday’s report from the CME showed deliverable stocks of HRW wheat down 32% from this time a year ago while SRW wheat stocks were up 10% from a year ago
Fighting continues in Ukraine as Russia reportedly fired “scores of missiles” at Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other Ukrainian cities today, and so far, 54 of the 69 missiles have been shot down

Feb LC up 0.975 @ 158.775 & Jan FC up 0.725 @ 184.200
Both live cattle and feeder cattle are trading higher as corn slips and cash is expected to trade higher this week
Cash bids have picked up in parts of Texas but for now asking prices in the South are around 158 and 256 in the North
Boxed beef remains firm and slaughter pace is brisk which should result in packers bidding up for cattle today and tomorrow
Choice cuts down 0.63 and select up 1.64
Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/28: down 0.29 @ 176.08

Feb hogs down 0.975 @ 89.775 & Feb pork cutout down 0.875 @ 96.175
Hogs are trading lower in Feb and April but higher in the deferred months as the bear spreading continues from yesterday
The cash weighted average is at 76 dollars while the index is at 78.60, so there is a large premium being carried by Feb
Hog weights fell 2.2 pounds last week showing that markets are current, and weights are still 7.6 pounds below a year ago which is supportive
National Direct Afternoon report fell 1.80
Hog slaughter projected at 492K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/29: up 2.09 @ 80.69

Amanda Brill