TFM Midday Update 12-30-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn up 1 @ 6.80
Corn was trading over 5 cents higher earlier this morning but has faded and is now working lower despite good export sales
The USDA reported an increase of 30.8 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 6.7 mb for 23/24
Last week’s export shipments of 39.9 mb were below the 48.3 mb needed to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 2.075 bb for 22/23
Heavy rains are forecast to fall around the lower Mississippi River tomorrow and into next week which should help with water levels and barge traffic

Jan soybeans up 11 @ 15.19
Beans are trading higher but have fallen significantly from their early morning highs which saw them up over 20 cents
The USDA reported an increase of 25.9 mb of soybeans in export sales for 22/23, and last week’s export shipments of 67.9 mb were above the 29.3 mb needed to achieve the USDA’s estimates of 2.045 bb in 22/23
Soybean export commitments now total 1.584 bb in 22/23 and are up 4% from a year ago
Bean meal is up over 2.5% while bean oil has slipped despite higher crude oil

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Mar Chi wheat up 19 @ 7.93, Mar KC up 21 @ 8.87, & Mar MNPLS up 15 @ 9.29
Wheat is the biggest mover today and was up sharply this morning after reports of a Ukrainian air-defense missile falling in Belarus which officials are taking seriously and intentional
Export sales were better for wheat this week with the USDA reporting an increase of 17.6 mb for 22/23 and an increase of 1.2 mb for 23/24
Last week’s export shipments of 12.4 mb were below the 15.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 775 mb for 22/23
Ukraine and Russia are getting the majority of wheat export business with prices much cheaper than US wheat

Feb LC down 0.250 @ 158.600 & Jan FC down 0.375 @ 183.425
Both live cattle and feeder are trading lower this morning as grains rally and cash business has mostly held off until later today
Some cattle in the South traded higher around 158.31 for 80% over choice, while Northern dressed averaged 248.67 delivered
Boxed beef was mixed but with choice lower but both choice and select have trended higher over the past few weeks
Choice cuts down 0.55 and select up 3.42
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/29: up 3.76 @ 179.84

Feb hogs down 0.875 @ 87.800 & Feb pork cutout down 0.750 @ 94.475
Hogs are being bear spread again today with Feb and April lower but deferred months trading higher
The lean hog index rose 2.09 bringing it to 80.69. but cash slipped and cutouts fell by 0.79
Hog weights fell 2.2 pounds last week showing that markets are current, and weights are still 7.6 pounds below a year ago which is supportive
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.70
Hog slaughter projected at 488K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/30: up 0.05 @ 80.74

Amanda Brill