TFM Midday Update 01-04-2023

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

  • Mar corn down 14 @ 6.57
  • Corn inspections were pegged at 26.3 mb, bringing total 22/23 inspections to 377 mb
  • For the next 2 weeks in Argentina, there is not much rain in the forecast
  • Crude oil is sharply lower again – possibly due to fears of a global recession – this may be pressuring other markets
  • Ukraine FOB corn is reported to be $1-1.10 / bushel lower than the US

SOYBEANS

  • Mar soybeans down 22 @ 14.90
  • Soybean inspections were pegged at 53.8 mb, bringing total 22/23 inspections to 1,052 mb
  • Private exporters reported sales of 124,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 22/23 marketing year
  • China demand remains a concern with a rise in Covid cases and economic issues
  • China’s crush margins have declined
  • Central and northern Brazil still look favorable (in terms of weather conditions)
  • March soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $19.65 per bushel

 

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WHEAT

  • Mar Chi wheat down 25 @ 7.50Mar KC down 26 @ 8.43, & Mar MNPLS down 13 @ 9.06
  • Wheat inspections were pegged at 3.1 mb, bringing total 22/23 inspections to 435 mb
  • Dryness persists in the southern plains, and that may continue throughout January
  • Argentina may only have half of their usual wheat exports (due to the drought)
  • Russian wheat exports for December are estimated to be record large (around 4-4.5 mmt)
  • Ukraine wheat exports are running 47% behind last year

CATTLE

  • Feb LC up 0.500 @ 157.350 & Jan FC up 2.250 @ 184.950
  • Feeder cattle were lower yesterday despite weaker corn
  • Higher cash cattle expected
  • Higher food prices for consumers may affect demand which is a concern
  • Packers should stay aggressive with strong boxed beef
  • Choice cuts up 4.97 and select up 3.70
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/3: down 0.91 @ 181.02

HOGS

  • Feb hogs down 0.600 @ 84.475Feb pork cutout down 0.675 @ 91.125
  • Hogs succumbed to spillover pressure yesterday (and maybe again today)
  • Hog supply is expected to tighten throughout the year
  • Holiday demand was maybe not as good as expected
  • Lower cutouts are unsupportive
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.70
  • Hog slaughter projected at 492K
  • CME Lean hog Index for 1/4: down 0.74 @ 79.45

Author

Brandon Doherty

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