TFM Midday Update 01-06-2023

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn up 1 @ 6.54
USDA reported an increase of 12.6 mb of corn export sales for 22/23
Private exporters reported sales of 112,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico (89,600 mt during 22/23 and 22,400 mt during 23/24)
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 13% of Argentina’s corn crop good to excellent
Chinese March corn price posted the 9th consecutive gain, and is around the equivalent of $10.66 per bushel
The USDA could show a reduced corn demand estimate in next week’s report

Mar soybeans up 16 @ 14.87
USDA reported an increase of 26.5 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 5.5 mb for 23/24
Private exporters reported 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during 22/23
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 8% of Argentina’s soybean crop good to excellent
Brazil conditions still look mostly favorable in the central and northern areas, but there is dryness in the south

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Mar Chi wheat up 1 @ 7.48, Mar KC down 4 @ 8.36, & Mar MNPLS up 2 @ 9.11
USDA reported an increase of 1.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 3.6 mb for 23/24
Russia has issued a 36-hour ceasefire during their Orthodox Christmas holiday
There is a possibility that the USDA may reduce their Argentina wheat crop estimate (due to the drought) on next week’s report
US export demand remains poor and is a point of concern
Soil moisture conditions in SRW areas have improved since the fall but HRW areas remain mostly dry

Feb LC down 0.325 @ 157.025 & Jan FC down 0.500 @ 183.300
Yesterday, live cattle futures traded in a narrow range
Cash was steady in the south and $0.50 higher in the north
Recession concerns could impact the cattle market
Cash cattle should remain steady to higher this week which should provide support
Choice cuts down 1.26 and select up 0.55
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/5: down 0.42 @ 180.31

Feb hogs down 1.675 @ 80.850 & Feb pork cutout down 1.750 @ 88.775
Hog futures are near oversold technical levels
Cutouts continue to be weak with a 1.51 loss yesterday
Higher weights and strong slaughter pace are leading to more product on the market
Despite the recent decline, Feb futures are still at a premium to cash
National Direct Afternoon report increased 0.92
Hog slaughter projected at 488K
CME Lean Hog Index for 1/6: down 0.80 @ 78.26

Bryan Doherty