TFM Midday Update 01-10-2023

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn up 5 @ 6.58
Corn futures have been bouncing around this morning and were down as much as 4 cents in March but are currently higher
Prices have shown downward momentum since the beginning of the year, and Argentina’s recent forecasts show better chances of rain this week adding more pressure
Export sales have been slow, and this might be highlighted in Thursday’s WASDE report which could raise ending stocks by 50 mb
Brazil’s corn is currently cheaper than the US, but the gap is narrowing which may allow the US to pick up more export business

Mar soybeans up 4 @ 14.93
Soybeans are trading higher as hot and dry Argentina now has much better chances for rain multiple days this week
Private exporters reported sales of 174,181 mt of beans for delivery to Mexico in the 22/23 marketing year
Crude oil was initially trading higher this morning but has slipped bringing bean oil lower, but bean meal is slightly higher
Despite the lower prices, crush margins are rising giving processors more incentive to buy cash beans and are keeping domestic demand strong

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Mar Chi wheat down 9 @ 7.33, Mar KC down 12 @ 8.17, & Mar MNPLS down 4 @ 8.98
Wheat is trading lower as funds add to their short positions ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report
US ending wheat supplies are headed for their lowest finish in 15 years, and December 1 wheat stocks are expected to come in at 1.35 bb, also the lowest in 15 years
Ukraine is shipping wheat out of the Black Sea and so far, has shipped 23.6 mb of grain in 22/23 with 8.6 mmt being wheat
Russian and Ukrainian wheat remain much cheaper than US wheat which is behind the very poor wheat export sales

Feb LC up 0.525 @ 158.275 & Jan FC up 0.875 @ 184.500
Both live and feeder cattle are higher again today as boxed beef continues to move higher and sliding corn prices support feeder cattle
The trend higher in boxed beef is giving encouragement to the potential for higher cash as packers may bid up to take advantage of the margins
Cash business this week will likely be delayed until Thursday and Friday if the current trend continues
Choice cuts up 3.15 and select up 0.26
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/9: down 0.09 @ 180.37

Feb hogs down 0.800 @ 80.000 & Feb pork cutout down 0.550 @ 88.450
Hogs are trading lower after a decline in cash and a drop in the cutouts yesterday afternoon of 1.65
Pork supplies are high right now as higher chain speeds are causing prices to decline in order to move pork
Feb futures have a chart gap lower that needs to be filled which may be holding traders back from buying
National Direct Afternoon report decreased 0.59
Hog slaughter projected at 492K
CME Lean Hog Index for 1/10: down 0.70 @ 76.79

Amanda Brill