TFM Midday Update 03-06-2023

CORN

May corn down 4 @ 6.36
Corn is trading slightly lower this morning as a decline in wheat prices add pressure
Brazil is still receiving rain as they harvest and get ready to plant second crop corn, while Argentina remains dry with poor crop ratings
Wednesday’s WASDE report may show revisions in South American production pegging the Argentinian crop smaller
This morning, the USDA announced private export sales of 110,000 mt of corn to Japan and 182,400 mt to unknown both during the 22/23 marketing year

May soybeans up 13 @ 15.31
Soybeans are trading higher thanks to a big jump in meal that is being supported by very strong cash offers that are at a premium to futures
With Argentina’s crop expected to be so small, it is possible that the US will pick up on bean meal exports that normally come from Argentina
Private analysts are estimating Argentina’s production at 31 to 32 mmt, which is significantly less than the USDA’s last estimate so the WASDE report on Wednesday may adjust that
Bean oil is lower, along with a decline in palm oil of 1.7% and a drop in crude as well

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May Chi wheat down 12 @ 6.97, May KC down 18 @ 7.98, & May MNPLS down 1 @ 8.68
Wheat is the biggest percentage loser of the day and Chicago is slipping below its support at 7 dollars
Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower as Russia’s cheaper wheat offers continue to pressure prices of other countries wheat
The northern Plains spring wheat areas and soft red winter areas in the eastern Belt have continued to receive much needed moisture
The CFTC reports have been delayed for the past few weeks, but what has been released shows funds short 72,000 contracts

Apr LC up 0.550 @ 165.975 & Apr FC up 2.375 @ 198.400
Both live and feeder cattle are higher today with feeders leading the way on lower corn
Cash was higher again last week with trade in the South done at 1-2 dollars higher and in the North up to 4 dollars higher
Feedlots have the upper hand right now and higher cash is possible again this week
Choice cuts up 0.82 and select down 0.72
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/3: up 1.41 @ 185.43

Apr hogs down 0.975 @ 83.575 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 91.150
Hogs are trading lower today as cash fell and cutouts lost 0.16
Technically, hogs are oversold which may trigger some buying action from funds
Last week’s exports were good at 31,000 mt but were down 40% from the previous week
National Direct Afternoon report lost 0.66
Hog slaughter projected at 480K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/6: up 0.06 @ 78.71

Amanda Brill