TFM Midday Update 03-31-2023

CORN

May corn up 7 @ 6.57
Corn is trading higher ahead of today’s Stocks and Acreage report, which will be released at 11 central
The average trade guess for US corn acres is 90.88 million acres, slightly down from the Ag Outlook estimate of 91 million acres
The average estimate for US quarterly grain stocks is 7.470 billion bushels, a decrease from last month’s estimate of 7.758
The Buenos Aires Exchange kept their corn estimates unchanged at 36 mmt but last month’s WASDE estimate is still 4 mmt higher

May soybeans up 17 @ 14.92
Soybeans started the day unchanged to lower, but are now moving significantly higher with the front month leading
Meal is trading lower while bean oil is up over 2.50% thanks to a jump in crude oil and a rise in world veg oil prices
The average estimate for US soybean acres is 88.242 million acres, up from the USDA outlook forum estimate of 87.5
The average estimate for US quarterly grain stocks is 1.742 billion bushels, down from last month’s estimate of 1.932 bb

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May Chi wheat up 3 @ 6.95, May KC up 8 @ 8.80, & May MNPLS up 2 @ 8.82
Wheat is trading slightly higher ahead of the USDA report which is estimating 48.852 million acres of planted wheat and 0.934 bb of grain stocks
The USDA reported an increase of 5.6 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 1.4 mb for 23/24
Last week’s export shipments of 13.9 mb were better than usual, but still below the 16.3 mb needed to achieve the USDA’s estimates
Crop ratings for HRW wheat in the southwestern Plains have fallen with Texas at 18% good to excellent and the poor to very poor rating at 48% due to drought

Apr LC up 0.475 @ 168.050 & Apr FC up 1.175 @ 201.075
Both live and feeder cattle are higher after cash trade moved significantly higher at 4 dollars better in the South and 5 better in the North
Weekly export sales weren’t supportive at only 11,300 mt, which was down 40% from the previous week
Choice cuts down 1.09 and select down 0.44
Cattle slaughter projected at 115K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/30: up 1.11 @ 192.35

Apr hogs down 0.850 @ 75.600 & Apr pork cutout down 0.025 @ 81.450
Hogs are trading lower in the April contract but higher in deferred months as pork supplies remain stout
The hogs and pigs report came out and was neutral to slightly bearish
National Direct Afternoon report rose 0.44
Hog slaughter projected at 480K
CME Lean Hog Index for 3/31: down 0.23 @ 75.77

Amanda Brill