TFM Midday Update 04-05-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Friday, April 7, 2023, in observance of Good Friday

CORN

May corn up 3 @ 6.57
Private exporters reported sales of 125,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown during the 22/23 marketing year
There may be some new concerns regarding the banking crisis after the Swiss government said they will investigate the merger of Credit Suisse and UBS
May corn is at or near overbought levels (on some technical indicators)
Corn futures are firming at midday, despite overnight weakness

May soybeans up 2 @ 15.19
Private exporters reported sales of 276,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 22/23 marketing year
Next Tuesday, April 11, will be the monthly WASDE report – it is expected to show tight soybean carryout
Brazil soybean export prices continue to trend lower
May soybean meal has lost $50 per ton over the past 4 weeks or so
Brazil soybean harvest is said to be about 80% complete

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May Chi wheat down 8 @ 6.83, May KC down 8 @ 8.64, & May MNPLS down 11 @ 8.78
The GFS weather model shows some rains forecasted for the southern plains – the European model forecast has most of that in the eastern areas
The western part of the HRW wheat area is experiencing high winds and low humidity which are affecting the crop
Russia continues to have cheap wheat for export
Melting snow next week in the northern plains could cause flooding issues that delay spring fieldwork

Apr LC up 0.475 @ 168.075 & Apr FC up 0.075 @ 198.025
Feedlots may hold out for higher prices this week after the strength in boxed beef
Packers may be willing to bid up after the cash increase last week
Tightening supply should provide support, but the economy & demand could still be concerns down the road
Choice cuts up 2.85 and select up 3.77
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/4: up 1.34 @ 193.02

Apr hogs up 1.675 @ 73.900 & Apr pork cutout up 1.100 @ 79.000
Selling pressure continues to be the theme in hog futures as stops are triggered
Hog futures are very oversold and due for an upside correction
Slaughter pace is strong and is preventing supply from backing up
Funds seem comfortable to continue to hold their record short position
National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.28
Hog slaughter projected at 477K
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/5: down 0.52 @ 74.68

Brandon Doherty