TFM Midday Update 04-06-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Friday, April 7, 2023, in observance of Good Friday

CORN

May corn down 10 @ 6.43
The USDA reported an increase of 49.1 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 1.0 mb for 23/24.
The US energy department said supplies of gasoline and ULSD are the lowest in 9 years (for this date).
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentina’s corn crop is rated only 7% good to excellent (this is down 2% from the last rating).
The discount of July futures to May could be the result of anticipation that Brazil’s safrinha crop will be large.

May soybeans down 22 @ 14.89
The USDA reported an increase of 5.7 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and a net cancellation of 1.8 mb for 23/24.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentina’s soybean crop is rated just 4% good to excellent (this is unchanged from the last rating).
Some are speculating that yesterday’s announced sale of 276,000 mt of soybeans to unknown might have originally been a Chinese purchase of Argentina soybeans that was switched to the US.
The Argentina soy/peso deal will start on Saturday and is expected to increase farmer selling by 8-10 mmt.

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May Chi wheat down 3 @ 6.79, May KC up 11 @ 8.72, & May MNPLS up 5 @ 8.79
The USDA reported an increase of 7.1 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and a net cancellation of 0.4 mb for 23/24.
Turkey’s foreign minister said the Ukraine war could intensify this summer – that raises questions about their crop, exports, and the corridor deal.
Europe’s wheat exports are up only 6% from last year, but the USDA is looking for a 16% increase.
Recently weighing on wheat futures is the import of Polish wheat into Florida for milling (talk is that it was up to 5 cargoes).

Apr LC up 2.350 @ 170.750 & Apr FC up 2.575 @ 200.400
Weekly beef net export sales for 2023 were at 13,500 mt.
Both live and feeder cattle futures gapped higher on the charts at this morning’s open.
Feedlots may be holding out for higher cash, and trade is expected to take place today ahead of the three-day weekend.
Consumer demand may become a concern if more economic issues develop.
Choice cuts up 0.68 and select up 0.21
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/5: up 0.27 @ 193.29

Apr hogs up 0.550 @ 73.950 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 79.025
Weekly pork net export sales for 2023 were at 53,200 mt (a marketing year high).
July futures gapped lower on the chart yesterday, but that has since been filled today.
Packers have not been aggressive this week, able to obtain supply without difficulty.
Slaughter will be down this week as some plants will close for the holiday weekend.
National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.80
Hog slaughter projected at 483K
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/6: down 0.77 @ 73.91

Brandon Doherty