TFM Midday Update 4-11-2023

CORN

May corn up 1 @ 6.54
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as traders are anticipating a drop in the carryout due to increased export and feed demand.
Today’s WASDE will likely show changes to South American production with possible declines for Argentina and increases for Brazil.
Trade expectations are for US ending stocks in corn to fall to 1.316 billion bushels from 1.342 bb in March.
Corn exports have been falling behind despite being the main world supply right now and sales commitments are down 33% from a year ago.

May soybeans up 7 @ 14.94
Soybeans opened up strong out of the gate as expectations for today’s WASDE are for the carryout to fall to just 201 mb from 210 mb in March.
Bean meal is leading the way higher today, but bean oil is not far behind as it follows crude oil up.
Argentina’s third round of the soy dollar program is not working as well as it did the previous times as farmers hold onto their beans despite the exchange rate incentive as an inflation hedge.
Argentina’s bean production is expected to be cut to 29 mmt from 33 mmt in March, but Brazil’s already record production is expected to be increased to 153.9 mmt ad is 82% complete.

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May Chi wheat down 4 @ 6.74, May KC down 3 @ 8.73, & May MNPLS down 1 @ 8.75
Wheat is trading slightly lower as US ending stocks will not likely hold changes, but trade is looking for a possible increase in European and Russian wheat stocks.
The southern Plains remain dry and crop conditions fell 1% from last week with HRW wheat at 13-20% good to excellent and soft wheat at 65-70% good to excellent.
Expectations are for US ending stocks to rise slightly by 12 mb to 581 mb, but still would be the lowest stocks in 15 years.
A high-pressure ridge is forecast to set up in the Plains this week with temperatures warming up.

Apr LC up 0.575 @ 171.900 & Apr FC up 0.350 @ 201.300
Live cattle continue to make new contact highs as cash trade is on fire, while feeders are following fats up as well.
Asking prices in the South are starting around 174 to 175, while there have been reports of some offers in Nebraska between 182 and 183.
Choice cuts up 1.93 and select up 2.62.
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K.
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/10: up 0.04 @ 193.33.

Apr hogs down 0.250 @ 73.125 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 78.950
Hogs have unfortunately not been sharing in the enthusiasm from the cattle market and continue lower as lower cutouts and mediocre cash trade holds prices down.
The cutouts were down 0.84, but with hogs so technically oversold, funds may eventually come in as buyers.
National Direct Afternoon report rose 0.31.
Hog slaughter projected at 483K.
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/11: down 0.24 @ 72.64.

Amanda Brill