TFM Midday Update 4-13-2023

CORN

May corn down 2 @ 6.54
Corn is trading higher this morning supported by a flash sale and lower Argentinian production estimates, but light weekly export sales.
Argentina’s Rosario Exchange lowered their corn estimates yet again to only 32 mmt compared to 35 mmt previously.
Brazil’s corn crop is expected to be record breaking, but the corn will not be available until July which should give the US a good export window.
A flash sale of 327,000 mt of corn was reported for delivery to China, but last week’s export sales were low at 527,000 mt for 22/23, down 58% from the previous week.

May soybeans up 2 @ 15.06
Soybeans are higher along with bean meal while bean oil is slipping a bit, but more declines in Argentinian production are giving big support to meal.
The Rosario Grain exchange cut Argentina’s soy crop yet again all the way down to just 23 mmt compared to this week’s WASDE number of 27 mmt.
As the soy dollar program continues on, farmers still show very little interest in selling their soybeans and are hoarding them as a hedge against inflation.
Soybean net sales were 364,500 mt for 22/23 and were up noticeably from last week and up 17% from the prior 4-week average with main buyers being the Netherlands, unknown destinations, and Japan.

May Chi wheat down 12 @ 6.68, May KC down 20 @ 8.44, & May MNPLS down 8 @ 8.52
Wheat is the only product in the grain complex moving lower this morning with KC leading the way down now that better rain chances are forecast in some of the driest areas.
Nearly non-exist soil moisture will be a major hurdle along with high winds that will be a major blow to production in Kansas.
The overall winter wheat rating is now at just 27% good to excellent.
On a positive note, Taiwan flour mills bought 52,850 mt of US mixed milling wheat.
Wheat net sales were 135,700 mt for 22/23 and were down 30% from the previous week with top buyers being the Philippines, Mexico, and Ecuador.

Apr LC up 2.000 @ 177.275 & Apr FC up 1.025 @ 203.250
Both live and feeder cattle are higher this morning as cash continues to rocket higher and boxed beef posts solid gains.
In the South, offers are as high as 177, and some light trade was reported between 180 and 182.
Beef net sales were 8,700 mt and down 36% from the previous week and 43% from the 4-week average.
Choice cuts up 3.38 and select down 0.23.
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K.
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/12: up 0.23 @ 193.24.

Apr hogs down 0.350 @ 71.950 & Apr pork cutout down 0.025 @ 77.725
Hogs can’t catch a break and are lower again today after cash fell slightly but the cutouts took a big hit losing 1.44.
Net sales of pork were 27,100 mt for 2023 and were down 49% from the previous week and 31% from the 4-week average with Japan, Mexico, and China.
It is possible that a demand shift will occur with beef prices rising and pork prices falling.
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.05.
Hog slaughter projected at 485K.
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/13: down 0.27 @ 72.25.

Amanda Brill