TFM Midday Update 4-14-2023

CORN

May corn up 9 @ 6.61
Corn is trading higher as threat of a freeze as far South as Kentucky approaches next Saturday and may delay planting.
Private exporters reported sales of 382,000 mt of corn for delivery to China with 246,000 mt for the 22/23 year and 136,000 mt for delivery during the 23/24 year.
Corn is continuing to be bull spread with May posting gains and Dec losses due to extremely tight nearby supplies.
Trade is looking for a 2 million acre or more increase in corn seeding which could bring the US carryout back above 2 billion bushels.

May soybeans down 7 @ 14.94
Soybeans are lower with the majority of losses in the Nov contract as with corn, tight on hand supplies are supporting the front months.
With Brazil’s record crop nearly harvested and their exports picking up to China, there is concern that US exports will lag even more causing the USDA to adjust their export numbers.
If exports do start to drop off, the expansion of biofuel plants should be supportive to bean oil, but it will be a few years before the plants are operational.
The Rosario Grain exchange cut Argentina’s soy crop yet again all the way down to just 23 mmt compared to this week’s WASDE number of 27 mmt.

May Chi wheat up 12 @ 6.79, May KC up 25 @ 8.70, & May MNPLS up 19 @ 8.68
Wheat is trading higher today with the majority of gains in KC wheat with poor US weather and the possibility of the Black Sea grain deal not getting renewed as support.
Wheat has struggled to find support as aggressive sales out of the Black Sea have undercut the market, and Russia exported a record large 4.7 mmt
Ukrainian wheat production is projected to fall to just 14 mmt from 27 mmt as the country begins to lean more towards oil seed planting.
Soil moisture in the southwestern Plains is 80% short to very short and will need significant rains to turn things around, as it is now, many acres are likely to be abandoned.

Apr LC down 0.475 @ 175.025 & Apr FC down 0.525 @ 202.150
Both live and feeder cattle are trading lower today after explosive gains over the past week as cash traded significantly higher.
Live cattle in the South traded 5 dollars higher, in the North as much as 10 dollars higher, and Northern dressed averaged 11 dollars higher than last week.
The continued gains in boxed beef and strong beef demand are forcing packers to pay up for cattle.
Choice cuts up 1.94 and select up 1.57.
Cattle slaughter projected at 119K.
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/13: up 6.53 @ 199.77.

Apr hogs up 0.075 @ 71.675 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 77.500
Hogs are trading slightly higher as technical buying kicks in considering that cash moved lower, but the cutouts gained 1.54 yesterday.
Stronger cutouts along with the extremely oversold hog market could trigger some short covering by the funds.
National Direct Afternoon report fell 1.28.
Hog slaughter projected at 480K.
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/14: down 0.30 @ 71.95.

Amanda Brill