TFM Morning Update 04-25-2023

CORN

Corn is slightly lower again this morning with the pressure in large part due to China’s cancellation of a big corn shipment from the US, sparking fears that more will come.
Yesterday, new crop corn declined sharply but rallied to end the day steady, hinting that traders may be concerned about weather delays affecting yields down the road.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed corn planting advancing from 6% planted to 14%, above the 5-year average of 11% despite weather challenges.
The 6 to 10-day forecast is calling for lower-than-normal precipitation in the Corn Belt which will be helpful for planting, but below-normal temperatures may slow germination on planted acres.

Yesterday, soybeans closed sharply lower but are only down slightly this morning with the majority of losses in new crop contracts. Both soybean meal and oil are steady so far despite a decline in crude oil.
The spread between May futures and Nov is approaching 2 dollars, and as time presses on, Nov will likely gain value to narrow that spread as the Nov contract retains good crush margins which are valuable to processors.
The crop progress report showed soybean plantings at 9% which were in line with expectations and are also in line with the 5-year average.
Brazilian cash prices have recently declined sharply, and both the US and Argentina have purchased Brazilian beans, with Argentina needing the soybeans to meet their export needs for soybean meal and oil.

Wheat is lower again this morning and continues to be pulled down by KC wheat due to the forecast which says that most of Kansas and Oklahoma will receive significant and sorely needed rainfall over the next 7 days.
Crop progress showed winter wheat good to excellent conditions slipping by 1% to 26%, and the crop conditions for winter wheat are the lowest ever for mid-April. 18% of winter wheat is headed vs the 5-year average of 14%.
Spring wheat plantings are at 5% complete which is well below the 5-year average of 12%, and better weather will be necessary to improve this crop.
Russia has threatened to retaliate if the G7 proceeds with a total ban on most exports to Russia, and said they would withdraw the safe-transit deal allowing Ukraine to export through the Black Sea.

Amanda Brill