TFM Midday Update 04-25-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower for the fifth consecutive day, as planting continues in the US and South America sells their cash corn for significantly less than the US offers.
The US Dollar is moving higher today and that, along with lower crude and lower stocks, is putting pressure on grains.
Weekly exports were poor for corn last week and a net cancellation of 326,000 tons of US corn that were to be shipped to China was a bearish influence.
Corn plantings are estimated at 14%, above the 5-year average of 11% with planting ahead of schedule in the South.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower again today and the May contract is over 50 cents off yesterday’s high. Both soybean meal and oil are lower, but oil is posting the biggest losses with crude oil declining over 2 dollars a barrel.
Crop progress showed soybean plantings slightly ahead of schedule with 9% of the crop planted – with Illinois at 15%, Indiana at 8%, Ohio at 6%, and Nebraska at just 4%. One crop scout put the US soybean yield at 52 bpa.
Brazilian soybean export prices have dropped significantly but may be bottoming out as farmer selling slows down for new crop sales.
Last week there was talk that China purchased between 40 and 50 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil which would explain poor export sales in the US.

Wheat is lower with the rest of the grain complex and is being led lower by KC wheat again as weather forecasts call for well-needed rain in Kansas and Oklahoma.
Crop ratings showed the good-to-excellent rating for winter wheat fell by 1% to just 26% which is well below the 5-year average, but 18% of the wheat crop is heading vs 14% on average. For spring wheat, only 5% of the crop is planted vs 17% on average.
Russia is threatening to end Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea which could be supportive for US prices.
APK Inform sees Ukraine’s grain harvest potentially falling by 13% to just 45.6 million metric tons in the 23/25 marketing year compared to 86 mmt before the Russian invasion.

Amanda Brill