TFM Midday Update 04-26-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower with the markets relatively quiet so far. The US Dollar has fallen sharply, which should be friendly to commodities, and with corn so oversold, funds may be easing on their selling.
There has been little in the way of fresh news, but tight old crop supplies in the western Corn Belt have kept basis firm while improving ethanol margins keep domestic demand strong for old crop.
The Black Sea grain deal has been a point of contention and it looks as though Russia will not renew a third extension of the deal unless sanctions on them are lifted, which would be supportive for corn and wheat.
Planting in the US is beginning to kick off in a bigger way as weather improves, and most combines should be rolling by the beginning of next month as rain chances are below normal in the Midwest.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher thanks to a bounce in soybean oil that comes despite another drop in crude oil prices, as well as a 1.76% decline in palm oil futures. Soybean meal is currently trading lower.
While Brazil’s harvest is now over 95% completed and those bushels are dominating exports, Argentina has stopped offering exports now that their production is estimated at only 22-25 mmt.
A longer-term bearish factor is that Brazil is planning to expand their planted acres for 23/24 and their production estimate for that marketing year is coming in at 159 mmt compared to the 153 mmt this year.
Canada is expected to release their seeding intentions with canola seeding up 500,000 acres to 21.8 million acres, which is up 0.9% from last year.

All three wheat products are lower today, but Minneapolis is leading the way down with KC wheat trailing behind as weather improves slightly.
Rains are expected to continue tonight in the hard red winter wheat areas and may even go into the weekend, while heavy storms will hit the Texas panhandle and go into western Oklahoma early on Wednesday.
As with corn, wheat traders are looking closely at the Black Sea grain deal which is at risk of not being renewed if Russia doesn’t have their sanctions lifted. This could be friendly for wheat if the deal is not renewed.
Today, Stats Canada released their seeding intentions which showed that all wheat will rise by over 1 million acres to 27 million acres which is up 6.2% from a year ago.

Amanda Brill