TFM Morning Update 05-04-2023

CORN

Corn is a bit lower this morning after rallying yesterday following an alleged assassination attempt by Ukraine on Vladimir Putin and an attack on the Kremlin. No one was hurt and it is unclear who was behind the attack.
Estimates for today’s export sales report for corn are between negative 300k and 900k tons with an average of 175k. Net sales cancellations could pressure prices.
Ethanol stocks have fallen by 3.9% to 23.363 mln bbl while analysts were expecting 24.423. Plant production is at 0.976 m b/d vs the survey average of 0.963 m
Unfavorable weather and harvest delays have cut Argentinian corn production with an average estimate of 34.6 mmt, down 1% from the previous update.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning but essentially have gone nowhere in the past week despite plenty of volatility. Both soybean meal and oil are lower, while crude oil is slightly lower.
Estimates for today’s USDA export sales report in soybeans are between 100k and 500k tons with an average of 332k. Good exports for soybeans may begin to trend slightly higher as Brazilian farmers begin to slow sales.
The 6-day forecast for most of the Corn Belt calls for slightly above-average precipitation but warmer than normal temperatures with the warm temperatures moving North as well.
July soybean meal closed at a new 5-month low yesterday and crush premiums have continued to slide lower, near the lowest in a year.

Wheat rallied sharply yesterday after the Kremlin accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack in order to assassinate Putin. The attack was shot down and no one was hurt, but it is unclear if Ukraine was even involved.
The deadline for the Black Sea Grain Deal is approaching on May 18, and yesterday’s stunt doesn’t lend much confidence that Russia will agree to extend the deal.
Ukraine’s next wheat crop is expected to be the lowest since 2012/13 at just 15.04 mmt, and yield estimates are below the 5-year average.
Adding more support to the wheat complex yesterday was the crop tour which expects Oklahoma to raise the smallest wheat crop since 1955 due to the extreme drought.

Amanda Brill