CORN HIGHLIGHTS: 

• The USDA reported net cancellations of 12.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 as expected following Chinese cancellations last week. Export sales for next year came in at 4.8 mb.
• Although the Fed raised interest rates again yesterday, the comments by Fed Chairman Powell that there may be a pause on further rate hikes was viewed as supportive to financial and commodity markets.
• Much of the Midwest is forecast to see favorable weather conditions ahead; this should lead to a continued uptick in planting progress.
• The Brazilian safrinha corn crop is looking good. Harvest typically begins in early July, and a lack of domestic storage capacity could lead to a flood of Brazilian corn into the world export market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• July soybeans ended the day slightly higher after trading lower for the better part of the day. The higher close came despite losses in both soybean meal and oil, with crude oil a bit lower as well.
• US soybean meal exports in March were a record high for the month and up 22% from March of 2022 according to US Census Bureau data released this week.
• Export sales for soybeans were low but were at the higher end of the trade guesses. The USDA reported an increase of 10.6 mb of soybean export sales in 22/23 and an increase of 2.5 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 20.6 mb were above the 13.1 mb needed each week.
• Crude oil has fallen by over 7 dollars a barrel since Monday as traders nurse concerns about recession and the new bank failures. Demand for crude oil is expected to fall, which has pressured the soy complex.
• Weather in most of the country is forecast to warm up, and rains are expected to fall near normal levels. Soybean plantings remain ahead of pace for this time of year, and the improved weather will give northern states a chance to catch up.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat may have found a near-term bottom after the strong reversal yesterday and a higher close across the board today.
• The USDA reported an increase of 7.8 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 10.3 mb for 23/24.
• The increase in tensions between Russian and Ukraine after yesterday’s news suggests that the Black Sea export deal may not be renewed on May 18.
• The May 15-18 Kanas winter wheat crop tour is likely to show poor conditions, which could be supportive to prices.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS: 

• The June Class III contract closed 8 cents lower at $17.06, down 22 cents on the week entering Friday’s trade.
• After closing up 2.75 cents yesterday, spot cheese failed to find some follow-through buying and dropped 3.125 cents today to $1.60625/lb.
• June Class IV futures were unchanged at $18.40 amid a quiet spot butter and powder trade.
• March dairy exports were down about 2% YoY, coming in at 250,410 metric tons.
• Cheese exports were surprisingly down just slightly from March numbers from a year ago, hanging about 5,000 metric (12%) ahead of the 5-year monthly average.

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Author

Brandon Doherty