TFM Morning Update 05-08-2023

CORN

Corn is trading mixed this morning with July a bit higher and Dec lower. With the recent selloff in US corn prices, the US is becoming more competitive with Brazil.
In both Brazil and the US corn production estimates are positive due to favorable weather and corn sowing that is being favored in the US.
The recent rainfall in the US has slowed planting a bit but helped soil moisture in areas like Nebraska and western Iowa which were very dry.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position in corn by 102,849 contracts bringing their total net short position to 118,146 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher along with both soybean meal and oil, and crude oil is higher again as well which is offering support along with Argentina’s perpetually shrinking crop.
Argentina’s struggling crop is providing an offset to Brazil’s record crop which is keeping soybean supplies tighter than expected, and Brazilian soybeans are being shipped to Argentina to their crushing plants.
Brazilian soy exports reached 12.08 mmt in May versus just 10.27 mmt for the same month a year ago.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 30,835 contracts reducing their net long position to 56,373 contracts.

Wheat is trading higher again this morning as traders grow more concerned about the Black Sea grain deal’s potential non-renewal on May 18. Poor crop ratings in the US have also been supportive.
No new ships were authorized to carry out Black Sea grain exports last Friday after a meeting with Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the UN. Daily inspections of previously authorized ships continue however.
An estimate for Oklahoma wheat production was cited at 54 mb earlier this week, far less than the 68.6 mb last year and the 115.1 mb produced the year before.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position by 13,312 contracts, increasing that net short position to 126,324 contracts.

Amanda Brill