TFM Morning Update 05-09-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday afternoon’s crop progress showed that producers were able to get a good chunk of the crop in the ground despite the scattered rain.
Corn was 49% planted versus a trade estimate of 48%, 26% complete a week ago, and 42% on average. 12% of the crop is emerged.
Yesterday’s export inspections were on the low side at 38 million bushels, and the average is 51 mb for inspections to reach the USDA’s estimates.
Brazil’s second crop corn sales have begun to slow as prices fall and shipping becomes difficult due to bottlenecking at ports. Forward sales hit 24.3% of expected production of 92.2 mmt.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a good jump in crop progress yesterday, and export inspections yesterday morning were decent.
Crop progress showed that 35% of soybeans are planted which was above trade estimates, with 19% planted a week ago and ahead of the 21% average. 9% of the crop is emerged.
Yesterday’s export inspections totaled 14.5 mb but 15 mb are needed each week. It is possible that USDA expectations aren’t met despite the fact that year-to-date inspections are above a year ago.
China’s imports of soybeans fell 10% in April compared to a year ago as stricter clearance processes at customs have delayed the processing of cargoes.

Wheat is beginning the day mixed with Chicago posting the most losses, KC down slightly, and Minn wheat higher. Poor weather conditions in the US have been supportive.
Spring wheat is 24% planted, below the average trade guess and below the average of 38% for this time of year. 5% of the spring wheat crop is emerged.
In winter wheat, the good-to-excellent rating rose 1% to 29%, but the poor-to-very poor rating rose from 42% last week to 44%. 38% of the wheat is headed.
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia remain high, and the Zaporizhzhia power plant is under threat of a nuclear accident again due to the fighting, but a meeting between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN has been pushed up to May 10 where they will discuss the Black Sea agreement.

Amanda Brill