TFM Morning Update 05-11-2023

CORN

Corn ended the day yesterday higher but is trading lower this morning ahead of the export sales report which is expected to show another week of poor exports.
Brazil’s total corn output will grow by 12% from the previous cycle reaching a projected 126.7 mmt in 22/23 according to a Reuters poll.
Ethanol production fell the past week and production pace has been below the levels needed to meet the USDA’s estimates.
Corn may end up trading quietly until tomorrow’s WASDE numbers are revealed, and traders get a look at estimates for the US carryout and South American production.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and the Nov contract made new lows overnight. Soybean meal is relatively unchanged while soybean oil is lower with lower crude.
Technically, a close under the March low at 12.47 for the Nov contract could open up a move to 12.17, which were the lows made last July before the weather rally kicked in.
Argentina’s Rosario Grains exchange cut their forecast for the 22/23 soybean crop by 6.5% to 21.5 mmt which compares to a previous estimate of 23 mmt.
China is continuing their efforts to stabilize their soybean imports and diversify their sources by promoting higher domestic production.

Wheat is trading lower across the board today ahead of export sales and following more rain in the forecast for drought-stricken areas in the southwest.
The EU’s soft wheat exports in the season beginning July 1 rose 11% and has reached 26.5 mmt as of May 7, compared with 23.9 mmt the previous year.
China is expecting a strong wheat harvest and stable prices over the summer with a low possibility of the government buying crops to support prices.
The EU’s wheat crop outlook has been raised to 130 mmt, with stockpiles possibly ending 22/23 at an extremely high level. Spain is expected to produce less due to persistent drought.

Amanda Brill