TFM Midday Update 6-13-2023

CORN

The USDA rated the corn crop 61% good to excellent (down 3% from last week).
The western corn belt has rain in the forecast later this week, but it is expected to remain scattered and spotty.
Brazil has a frost risk this week, but still looks like they will produce a record corn crop of 132 mmt.
December corn futures have gained roughly 70 cents since the May 18 low. The Dec contract did gap higher yesterday indicating market strength; however, that gap could be filled down the road.
As reported by CNBC, one vessel left Ukraine over the weekend, hauling 69,000 mt of corn to Spain.

The USDA rated the soybean crop 59% good to excellent (down 3% from last week). This is the worst rating for this time of year since 2013.
August palm oil futures are up 2.5%, lifting soybean oil, and providing support to soybean futures.
Tomorrow the EPA will announce biofuel mandates for 2023 – 2025. Depending upon what the ruling is, this could have a large impact on soybean oil and soybean demand as more plants come online.
Chinese soybean imports to date are ahead of last year, however there is still concern about what their demand will look like down the road if their economy does not pick up.

The USDA said 8% of the winter wheat crop is harvested (vs 9% average), and that crop is rated 38% good to excellent (up 2% from last week).
The USDA said 97% of the spring wheat crop is planted (in line with average) and is rated 60% good to excellent (down 4% from last week).
Though it is early, wheat inspections for 23/24 are only at 12 mb, which is down 50% from last year.
Russian FOB offers are now said to be as low as $235-$240 per metric ton. Russia is reportedly talking about lowering that floor to as little as $230. This is certain to keep pressure on the US export market.
India is expected not to export wheat this year despite a large crop (due to tight stocks).

Brandon Doherty