TFM Morning Update 07-19-2023

CORN

  • Corn is trading higher again today continuing its rally after Russia attacked Ukraine’s port city of Odessa again last night inflicting much more damage than the previous night.
  • The 10-day forecast for the Corn Belt is still showing dry conditions with temperatures turning the hottest of the season beginning this weekend. Minnesota received some light showers overnight.
  • Projections for ethanol production for the week ending July 14 is showing production higher than the previous week at 1.042 million b/d with the stockpile average estimate above a week ago.
  • Barchart has raised their corn yield estimates to a yield of 177.97 bpa which compares to the USDA’s most recent forecast of 177.76 bpa.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybeans are trading higher again this morning with the Nov contract making a new high for 2023. Soybean meal’s gains are helping this rally, and soybean oil is higher as well.
  • Forecasts are predicting that August will begin with higher-than-normal temperatures in the Western Corn Belt, so rainfall will be important to shore up the poor current soil moisture levels.
  • The NWS will likely release their 30 and 90-day forecasts this week which the soy complex will watch closely for an idea on moisture and temperature into pod fill season.
  • India’s oil meals exports fell to 280,001 tons in June from 436,596 tons in May.

WHEAT

  • Wheat is beginning the day higher with Chicago wheat leading the way followed by KC and Minn following news of last night’s Russian attack on Ukraine’s port city.
  • After Russia withdrew from the grain deal they attacked Ukraine’s port city of Odessa with minimal damage and no casualties, but reports have come in of a second attack from last night which a spokesperson from Odessa called it a “hellish night”. It is assumed much more damage was done during this attack.
  • This morning, Russia said that ships in the Black Sea would be “in danger”, but they have also said that they would be willing to come back to negotiate in 3 months if the UN makes good on Russian demands.
  • The UN is apparently “floating” ideas on how to get Ukrainian and Russian grain out to the rest of the world as the Black Sea is closed.

Author

Amanda Brill

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