TFM Morning Update 07-25-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s rally that was led by more attacks by Russia in Ukraine and the hot and dry forecast.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 57% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent compared to 57% last week and 61% a year ago. 68% of the crop is silking.
Temperatures for most apart from northeastern areas of the Corn Belt will reach the 90s today, and triple digits are expected in Kansas. Drought remains a big concern.
On Monday, Russia destroyed grain warehouses on the Danube River, and now nearly 30 ships have dropped anchor near Ukraine’s Izmail port city.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have given back most of yesterday’s gains as prices meet resistance near their December high and not far from their contract high.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybeans at a 54% good to excellent rating which was down slightly from last week’s 55% and below last year’s 59%. 70% of soybeans are blooming compared to 56% last week, and 35% are setting pods.
Weather in the northwestern Plains and Midwest have better rain chances over the 6-10 day forecast along with milder temperatures that could help soybeans that are setting pods.
Yesterday’s export inspections report showed soybean inspections at 10.4 mb which puts total inspections at 1.844 bb, down 5% from last year.

Wheat is fairing better than corn and soybeans this morning with Chicago only down slightly and KC a bit higher after yesterday’s rally.
A Russian diplomat has said that there are no talks on restoring the grain deal, and based on Russia’s actions in targeting grain facilities, it does not seem like an agreement will be struck anytime soon.
USDA’s Crop Progress was released yesterday afternoon and showed 49% of spring wheat rated good to excellent vs 51% last week. The winter wheat harvest advanced to 68% complete vs 56% last week.
Ukraine has asked the EU for more export transit with the Black Sea deal ended and Ukraine struggling to export what grain they have left.

Amanda Brill