TFM Morning Update 07-28-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after scattered showers fell across the Midwest. Radar is showing rain falling over northern Illinois this morning with more expected in Wisconsin and Michigan.
For states in the Corn Belt that have not received these showers and are dealing with triple-digit temperatures, crops are struggling, but NOAA is predicting a wetter and cooler forecast for August.
In Brazil, September corn on the Bovespa exchange is trading near the equivalent of $5.11 a bushel, near the lowest level in 2 years, and serious competition for US exports.
The new drought monitor was released and showed corn crops experiencing drought rose by 4 points from the previous week to 59% following three consecutive weeks of decline.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning, perhaps finding some technical resistance after the rally. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is trading higher.
According to the drought monitor, 20% of soybean areas are dealing with D2 drought conditions 0r worse, and if the weather doesn’t improve in August, yields could be very poor.
Only 83.5 million acres of US soybeans were planted in 2023 and with crop conditions poor, this year’s production will likely fall short of demand. At least there is Brazil with seemingly enough soybeans for everyone.
A silo blast in southern Brazil killed 8 people and 1 is still missing. The cause of the explosion is unknown, and the people killed were foreign workers, mostly Haitian.

Wheat is trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex, likely due to the spring wheat tour which is seeing yields at 47.4 bpa, not great, but above the USDA’s estimate of 47.0 bpa.
Big concerns are in South Dakota, Montana, and the southern half of the Canadian Prairies as they deal with extremely dry conditions and very little rain forecast over the next 7 days.
The way things are looking right now, Ukraine will hardly be able to export any grain now that the Black Sea and Danube River routes are closed to them. 73% of Ukraine’s grain was shipped out of the Black Sea.
The Eu has cut their soft wheat crop estimate by 2.5 mmt and harvest is now seen at 126.4 mmt, below a June estimate for 128.9 mmt.

Amanda Brill