TFM Morning Update 08-02-2023

CORN

December corn is trading slightly higher but has backed off of gains in the overnight that were caused by a new attack by Russia on Ukraine’s Danube port.
The 7-day forecast has turned wetter since yesterday with nearly the entire Corn Belt and northwestern Plains expected to receive a good drink.
The June Crushings report showed that corn used in ethanol production was 441.5 mb, up slightly from May and in line with expectations. Ethanol margins have improved since June.
Slovakia is planning to expand its capacity for Ukrainian grain transit with its rail border crossings, but Russia seems intent on targeting Ukrainian grain storage and transportation.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning along with soybean meal and oil as trade focuses almost entirely on the August forecast which is showing much cooler and wetter conditions.
If this favorable two-week forecast holds up, it will be difficult for soybeans to rally very much as the conditions will significantly impact yields.
June soybean crush was released and showed 174.6 mb crushed, slightly higher than a year ago but below trade expectations.
Ukrainian vegetable oil exports totaled 549,400 mt in July, 7% higher than the previous month, but now with exports nearly impossible, that number should be much lower this month.

Wheat is trading higher this morning although it did back off highs from overnight which was also caused by the attack on Ukraine’s Danube port.
Traders have become a bit numb to attacks on Ukrainian ports at this point, and although the market might rally, focus quickly turns back to winter wheat harvest and weather.
The quarterly flour milling report was released and all wheat ground for flour was at 222 mb, down 2% from the 1st quarter grind and down 4% from the 2nd quarter of 2022.
The US has heard rumors that Russia is prepared to return to talks on renegotiating the Black Sea grain deal, but there is no evidence yet.

Amanda Brill