TFM Midday Update 08-01-2023

CORN

Corn is trading relatively unchanged at midday, but has seen a 10-cent range throughout the day. Crop conditions worsened yesterday, but that was expected, and the upcoming forecast includes more moisture.
Yesterday’s crop ratings showed corn’s good to excellent rating slip by 2 points to 55% vs the average trade guess of 56%. 84% of the crop is silking compared to 68% last week and 77% a year ago at this time.
This crop is currently the fifth lowest rated crop since 1988, but if this August forecast holds up with cooler temperatures and more rain, conditions could come back.
US corn inspections were a bit better last week at 20.3 mb, but are still 33% below a year ago, as Brazil keeps control of the world export market.

Soybeans have been trading either side of unchanged so far today, but are currently slightly higher with support from soybean meal, while soybean oil is lower.
Crop progress data showed good to excellent ratings, falling by 2 points from last week to 52%, which was below the average trade guess and below 60% a year ago. 83% of the crop is blooming and 50% is setting pods.
The 6 to 10-day forecast is showing showers for Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas, with expectations for 1 to 3 inches of rain between Sunday and Tuesday.
Brazilian 2024 soybean meal production is expected to reach 42.3 mmt, 3% above the previous year. Total soy crushing is seen at 55 mmt for 2024.

Wheat is trading lower despite a bigger than expected drop in good to excellent ratings and is being pressured by Paris milling wheat, which is lower for the sixth consecutive day.
The spring wheat crop is reportedly 2% harvested with a good to excellent rating that fell by 7 points to 42%, which compares to 70% a year ago. Winter wheat harvest was slightly above trade expectations at 80% harvested compared with 68% a week ago.
SovEcon raised the Russian wheat crop forecast to 87.1 mmt, as yields are now expected to improve. The previous projection for the Russian crop was 86.8 mmt.
Ukraine is reportedly discussing using Croatian ports for grain exports on the Danube River and the Adriatic Sea.

Amanda Brill