TFM Morning Update 08-04-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher after a Russian warship was damaged in a Ukrainian attack on the Novorossiysk naval base in Russia near the Black Sea.
The Russian ship that was attacked was offshore of a Russian port that also exports grain, and the port was briefly closed to shipping.
The Brazilian 23/24 corn crop is now expected to be 139.1 mmt compared to the previous year of 135.4 mmt.
Dryness and heat are fueling uncertainty for Argentina’s next corn crop as soil moisture levels remain low and the forecast doesn’t contain much rain.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with corn and wheat after Ukraine’s attack. Sep soybean meal is slightly lower while deferred contracts and soybean oil are higher.
The Black Sea attack has given some support, but yesterday’s good export sales and the export activity of soybeans sold to China have been friendly.
Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop is now being estimated at a whopping 165.9 mmt compared to 157.3 mmt the previous year.
Palm oil stocks in Malaysia are seen surging to five-month highs as production reaches the highest levels in seven months. Exports have increased as well.

Wheat is trading higher after last night’s attack on the Russian warship. Trade may grow concerned not just about Ukrainian exports but also Russian exports if Ukraine decides to start damaging their grain infrastructure.
Floods have hit China’s grain belt as the storms following Doksuri head northeast. In the crop growing region of Jilin, 19 inches of rain have fallen in the past 3 days.
Ukraine’s 23/24 grain exports for August were up 29% from last year at almost 2.4 mmt, but those numbers are expected to fall as shipping lanes become unusable.
Russia is signaling that it will offer cheaper grain exports to countries that have been friendlier and have not imposed sanctions.

Amanda Brill