TFM Midday Update 08-03-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower for the eighth consecutively lower day on favorable August weather forecasts and poor export sales that were released this morning.
The USDA reported an increase of 4.2 mb of corn export sales for 22/23, which was down 66% from the previous week and down from the prior 4-week average. There was an increase of 13.7 mb for 23/24, and exports of 24.7 mb were up 52% from the previous week and 26% from the prior 4-week average.
Yesterday evening, StoneX revised their estimates for US corn yields higher to 177 bpa, a lofty estimate, but below the USDA’s last estimate of 177.5 bpa.
Although the USDA predicted that Brazil would overtake the US as the world’s leading exporter of corn, the National Corn Growers Association has said that Brazil’s growth this season may not be sustainable in the coming years.

Soybeans are trading higher today despite the favorable August weather forecasts after export sales were released and saw good activity, as well as the report of another flash sale today.
Private exporters reported sales of 134,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. China and unknown destinations have been active buyers of US soybeans over the past week.
The USDA reported an increase of 3.3 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, which was down 54% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average. There was an increase of 96.7 mb for the 23/24 marketing year, and exports were 12.7 mb, which was down 9% from the previous week but up 30% from the prior 4-week average.
Crop trader Bunge is expecting tightness in US soybean oil as renewable diesel usage ramps up and increases demand for the product.

Wheat is lower again today and has been pulled down by disappointing export sales as well as Paris milling wheat futures that are lower for the eighth consecutive day.
The USDA reported an increase of 15.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, which was up 81% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average but increases for 24/25 were just 0.5 mb. Exports of 18.6 mb were above the 14.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate.
India is seeking to import 9 mmt of wheat from Russia in an attempt to boost their domestic stockpiles and fight rising prices in the country.
Vladimir Putin seems to be floating the idea of reinstating the Black Sea grain deal, but only if their requirements are met, but last time they renewed the deal they still made it difficult for Ukraine to get ships moving.

Amanda Brill