TFM Midday Update 8-18-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher on a continuing forecast of hot and dry weather that is expected to last at least another 7 days.
Triple digit temperatures are expected today for the western Plains as far north as South Dakota, and the central Corn Belt can expect temperatures in the 90s.
Brazil is harvesting the final third of their second crop corn but will receive rain over the weekend, which could slow down progress.
This morning, the USDA announced a private export sale of 112,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 23/24 year.

Soybeans are trading higher today with the hot and dry forecast supporting prices as they are in corn. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed new crop soybean sales of 389 mb, far below last year’s 671 mb at this time. Exports have been a struggle as the US competes with Brazil.
India’s July oilmeal exports rose to 381,301 tons, but soybean meal exports fell to 52,210 tons from 73,139 in June.
With these two weeks of hot and dry temperatures, the September WASDE report could show another reduction in yields, but that is also the report where acres could be adjusted higher which would affect the carryout.

Wheat is trading higher as well as futures become oversold on the technical side and may be carving out a bottom.
India is reportedly in confidential talks with Russia for a massive purchase of 9 mmt of wheat which would be the largest grain deal ever between the two countries. Indian wheat stocks are 20% below the 10-year average.
A drought in Kazakhstan has led to the destruction on 170 hectares of cropland with much of that being dedicated to wheat.
The International Grain Council is estimating world ending wheat stocks at 261 mmt or 9.59 bb which is slightly less than the USDA’s estimate of 265.6 mmt.

Amanda Brill