TFM Midday Update 08-21-2023

CORN

Private exporters reported sales of 111,770 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
The Pro Farmer tour began today. Last year, they came up with a corn yield around 168 bpa, but the final USDA number was 173 bpa.
China’s economy appears to continue to be struggling; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at a new 2023 low. (This index tracks stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange). Reportedly, they did drop their lending rate this weekend in an effort to stimulate the economy.
According to CONAB, Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest is now 72% complete (vs 86% at this time last year). Rains in southern Brazil are causing harvest delays.

Private exporters reported 159,350 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Historically, the Pro Farmer tour finds a soybean yield about 2-3 bushels below the final USDA number.
Hot and dry conditions this week across much of the Midwest could help support the market. This should impact soybeans more than corn at this point in the season.
November soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange hit their 2023 high and are trading around the equivalent of $19.11 per bushel.
Soybean oil is getting a boost from Malaysian palm oil, which hit a three week high after a surge in exports.

Wildfires in Washington may have led to the destruction of wheat fields in that area over the weekend. However, at this point, it is not a major issue.
The market appears to be unfazed by new Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow the past couple of days, which led to a temporary shutdown of one of their airports.
Dryness in Argentina and Australia could pose a significant threat to those wheat crops, and disappointing monsoon rains in India could lead to them being a net importer of wheat. The deal between India and Russia regarding a wheat purchase still has no confirmation.
US SRW wheat is now cheaper than French wheat, but the export market is still struggling.

Brandon Doherty