TFM Morning Update 09-08-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as quiet trade continues ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report.
The long stretch of dryness and heat in the Midwest has brought down yield estimates with some analysts expecting a final yield of between 172 and 173 bpa.
Planting estimates for corn are very large at 94.1 million acres, so even with lower yields, ending stocks should come in near 2 billion bushels.
November corn on the Dalian exchange is trading at the equivalent of $9.22 a bushel, so with US corn becoming more competitive with Brazil, exports could pick up in the coming months.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher to unchanged to begin the morning with higher soybean meal but lower soybean oil again.
News out of China has been confusing and leads one to believe that their economy is in trouble. Yesterday, China’s Customs Office reported that total imports were down 7.3% in August, but the same office just reported that soybean imports were up 31% from a year ago.
The Dow Jones survey is expecting yields from next week’s USDA report to come in between 49.0 and 51.0 bpa, but many analysts are predicting the lower end of that range.
Argentina’s soy crop for 23/24 is seen jumping 138% from the previous drought year with planted acres set to expand by 5.6%.

All three wheat products are trading slightly lower this morning amid quiet trade in general and little fresh news.
Moderate to heavy rains are forecast from Nebraska to Texas over the next 5 days which should set up better winter wheat planting conditions.
After Russia targeted Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube River ports, Ukraine is now exporting grain through Croatian ports.
World wheat production for 23/24 is now seen at 781.1 mmt which is down from the July estimate of 783.3 mmt due to downgraded prospects in Canada, the EU, and China.

Amanda Brill