CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Today was an overall quiet trading session as corn futures were choppy before settling lower on the day. Dec corn slipped 1 ¾ cents on the close. Sept corn futures finished its contract life today, closing at $4.62 ½.
• Weekly export sales are still lackluster overall. Last week, U.S. exporters sold 29.7 mb of corn for the 2023-24 marketing year. Current total sales commitments are at 439 mb, down 9% from last year’s levels, while the USDA is forecasting an export sale increase for the marketing year.
• Ethanol margins have remained strong, and last week’s ethanol grind was supportive of prices. Ethanol production jumped to 1.039 million barrels/day last week, above expectations and up 8% from YA. Corn consumed was nearly 104 mil. bu in the production process, above the pace needed to reach the USDA 2023/24 usage estimate of 5.30 bil. bu.
• Cash basis levels will likely be under pressure as corn harvest begins. Weather forecasts overall are likely to support an ongoing harvest.
• The corn market is still in a sideways and overall consolidating-type trade. $4.85 remains a strong level of resistance over the Dec contract, as the market ticks time moving closer to harvest.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher, marking the second consecutive higher close following Tuesday’s WASDE report, and have regained nearly 2/3 of the losses over the two days. Soybean meal ended the day higher with more substantial gains than bean oil, which closed unchanged to only slightly higher.
• Export sales were decent with the USDA reporting an increase of 25.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 with increases primarily for unknown destinations, China, and Japan. Export shipments of 15.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate.
• Palm oil futures rallied for the second day as India’s edible oils imports rose by 5.5% in August to a record large 1.85 mmt. There were large increases in imports of palm oil and soybean oil, which have been supportive to futures.
• The average trade guess for Friday’s August U.S. NOPA soybean crush is 167.802 mb. If realized, the August crush would be down 3.2% from the July crush, but up 1.4% from the previous year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The USDA reported an increase of 16.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.1 mb were above the 14.4 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s 700 mb export forecast.
• Despite a second consecutive higher close for Paris milling wheat futures, it was not enough to support the U.S. wheat markets, with all three classes posting losses. A lack of fresh bullish news and slow year to date sales may have contributed to today’s weakness.
• According to the Rosario Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop production is now estimated at 15 mmt versus its last estimate of 15.6 mmt, due to dryness.
• Despite that the USDA cut some other global production in Tuesday’s WASDE report, they left Russia’s wheat crop at 85 mmt. However, several private estimates are projecting a larger crop, with Sov Econ estimating Russian wheat production at 92 mmt.
• Strategie Grains reduced their estimate of EU wheat exports to 30.1 mmt from 30.8 mmt previously. However, they did slightly raise soft wheat production to 125 mmt versus 124.7 mmt last month.
• Next week, a meetings will take place between officials from the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukrainian President Zelensky. The talks will center around the Black Sea grain deal and possibly coming to a resolution in terms of getting the corridor re-opened.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures saw two-sided trade today, with small daily changes. October futures were 4 cents higher to close at $18.25.
• Spot cheese was higher for the second day in a row, with a half cent gain, entering Friday down 6.25 cents this week. Spot whey dropped 0.75 cents.
• Class IV futures were mostly higher, with the October contract closing back over $19.00. The 2024 average is sitting at a decent $19.30 currently.
• The back-and-forth action continued in butter today, with a 3-cent drop after pushing to a new 2023 high yesterday.

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Author

Brandon Doherty