TFM Midday Update 9-29-2023

CORN

Private exporters reported sales of 223,540 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
China’s Dalian Exchange is closed today through next week for their Golden Week holiday, so not much business is expected from them.
The U.S. corn export commitment is down 3% from last year, compared to the USDA’s estimated increase of 23%. U.S. corn is uncompetitive in part due to low river levels and increasing barge rates.
Rumors indicate that Ukraine sold 1 mmt of corn to China.
Corn futures have been relatively stagnant but have closed higher for 6 of the past 8 sessions, perhaps due to variable early yield results.
Argentina is still too dry, and it is affecting their corn planting. They are 7% done which is about half of normal for this time of year.

There are rumors that China may have switched some U.S. soybean export sales to South America.
The seven-day weather forecast for the western corn belt has showers that will slow harvest progress across Nebraska, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and western Iowa. However, the eastern corn belt looks to have good conditions for the next seven days.
November soybeans remain below the 100-day moving average of around 13.07, which has been an area of significant resistance since the first close below it last week.
U.S. soybean export commitments are down 34% from last year, and at a four-year low.
The possibility of a government shutdown is on the minds of many traders, as it would result in the delayed release of economic data that could affect financial and commodity markets.

Argentina’s wheat crop is rated a dismal 22% good to excellent. However, that is up from last year’s 14% good to excellent at this time. They are still struggling with heat and dryness.
Due to hot and dry conditions, Australia is lowering their wheat crop estimate to 23-25 mmt. There is also talk of a lower EU crop.
All three U.S. wheat futures classes are still in a bearish trend but technically are at or near oversold levels. Both K.C. and MPLS futures made new lows yesterday.
After being beat out in the Egypt tender by Romania and Bulgaria, Russia is said to be offering wheat for export around $245-$250 per ton.

Brandon Doherty