TFM Midday Update 10-02-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher near midday and has taken back a significant amount of Friday’s losses following the quarterly grain Stocks report. The government avoided a shutdown, which has been supportive to markets.
Corn had a surprisingly negative reaction to Friday’s report, which showed September 1 stocks at 1.361 billion bushels, which was 78 mb below the September WASDE and 91 mb below last year’s stocks.
This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show harvest between 26 and 28 percent complete, with crop conditions called steady to lower.
A sale of 210,000 metric tons of corn was reported for delivery to Mexico for the 23/24 marketing year. Exports remain sluggish overall, but Mexico has been a main buyer.

Soybeans are now unchanged to slightly higher after opening lower earlier this morning. Friday’s grain Stocks report in combination with the end of the quarter last week sent prices sharply lower. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher.
Malaysian palm oil fell by 1.73% on Monday and finished last week over 6% lower, which has pressured soybean oil. Crude oil has been trending higher but has backed off a bit today.
A sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans was reported for delivery to China for the 23/24 marketing year. As with corn, soybean sales remain well below the levels of a year ago.
There were 275 deliveries of October soybean meal for Friday and another 59 for Monday, which added to bearish pressure.

Wheat is trading significantly higher, but still has not gained back all the losses from Friday’s selloff. The fallout from the Stocks report caused all three wheats to make new contract lows.
US wheat production increased to a larger than expected 1.812 billion bushels, which is the highest in three years and was way above the trade expectations of 1.73 bb, which caused wheat to sell off.
There are rumors that Russian wheat offers have dropped to $235/mt for private tenders which would be $30-35/mt below Russia’s last offer to Egypt.
Australia remains very dry with their wheat crop in bad shape. There is light rain in the forecast before it is expected to turn dry again, but some analysts are expecting their wheat production to fall by 30-40%.

Amanda Brill