TFM Morning Update 10-05-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning and remains in its tight trading range as harvest progresses across the country.
Yesterday, rain fell in South Dakota and Minnesota slowing harvest temporarily, and today some showers are expected throughout the Midwest, but this weekend should be dry.
A sale of 7.7 mb of corn was reported to Mexico yesterday, and today’s export sales report is expected to show at least 50 mb of export sales as of September 28.
US ethanol stocks fell by 0.7% to 21.884m Bbl compared to analyst expectations of 21.943. Plant production was 1.009m b/d vs an estimated 0.999m.

Soybeans are trading lower today as they continue their downward trend despite tight US stocks. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Both soy products have been trending lower and have pressured soybeans with October meal receiving a large number of deliveries, and lower palm oil, canola, and diesel futures.
Brazilian soy exports are expected to reach 6.71 mmt in October compared to 3.59 mmt at this time a year ago. Soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.13 mmt.
Estimates for today’s export sales report for soybeans are between 400k and 950k tons with an average guess of 670k tons.

Wheat is the only commodity trading higher this morning in the grain complex as prices hold above last week’s lows.
While today’s export sales report will likely show another low number for wheat, China’s purchase of 8.1 mb of SRW wheat from the US was encouraging and may show that the US is becoming more competitive with Russia.
The number of ships heading into the Black Sea to move Ukrainian grain has been increasing as Ukraine’s attacks on Crimea have pushed Russian vessels out of the area.
The drought in Argentina that impacted corn and soybean production is ongoing and is now threatening this year’s wheat crop. Argentina is the third largest exporter of wheat.

Amanda Brill