TFM Midday Update 10-04-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower near midday as December futures find firm resistance at the $4.90 level. Pressure is also coming from harvest and a dry forecast into the weekend.
Yesterday, the stock market sold off sharply and the dollar reached new highs for 2023, which pressured commodities, and now it is being reported that Ukraine is having an easier time exporting grains.
Private exporters reported sales of 196,607 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. 109,226 metric tons are for delivery in 23/24, and 87,381 mt are for 24/25.
In Brazil, the first corn crop is now 23% planted according to CONAB, with the main growing area, Parana, now 71% seeded and Rio Grande du Sol 55% planted.

Soybeans are slightly lower, but have been trading both sides of unchanged today, with a higher open, but a fade into midday. Yesterday, November soybeans found support at the June 28 low of 12.56-3/4.
Both soybean meal and oil have been trending lower and are lower on the day. There were 605 total deliveries of meal in just three days, but no deliveries for soybean oil.
Yesterday, pressure on soybeans came from poor Census Crush for August at just 169 mb when trade was expecting closer to 172 mb.
Yesterday’s sale of 9.7 mb of soybeans to China during their Golden Week holiday was encouraging, but U.S. new crop bean sales are at just 16.2 mmt compared to 25.5 mmt last year.

Wheat is trading lower as a result of an increase in the U.S. Dollar Index and reports that Ukraine’s major ports have re-opened for exports of grain.
China made a surprise purchase of U.S. wheat yesterday of 8.1 mb, which was encouraging and points to the U.S. becoming more competitive, but Russian offers are still cheaper.
There have been reports that Ukraine is beginning to increase export shipments from its own grain corridor with 12 additional vessels now headed to the Black Sea ports for loading.
Globally, heavy rains are falling on Brazil’s wheat crop, which may cause quality issues, and in Argentina and Australia it is very dry with production expected to be negatively impacted.

Amanda Brill