TFM Midday Update 10-05-2023

CORN

Corn is working higher at midday after a lower open as gains in wheat lend support. Export sales were a bit better than expected, which has also been supportive.
The USDA reported an increase of 71.5 mb of corn export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 24.1 mb for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments of 24.1 mb were below the 40.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Exports were primarily to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Colombia.
Ethanol production was reportedly unchanged at 1.009 million barrels per day, and stocks were off slightly at 21.9 mmt. Ethanol production is 9% higher than a year ago.
Brazilian corn exports for October are expected to reach 8.9 mmt vs 6.2 mmt a year ago with much of that headed for China. There are also rumors that China is buying Ukrainian corn.

Soybeans remain lower at midday as they are under harvest pressure and also some early reports that yields may be better than anticipated.
Export sales for soybeans were decent with the USDA reporting increases of 29.7 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 24.7 mb were below the 35.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were China, Spain, and Bangladesh.
In Brazil, conditions in the northern region are too dry for planting and in the South, conditions are far too wet with flooding possible, and 4 to 9 inches of rain forecast within the next 10 days.
Brazilian soy exports are expected to reach 6.71 mmt in October compared to 3.59 mmt at this time a year ago. Soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.13 mmt.

Wheat is trading significantly higher at midday as it rallies off its low set last week. Support is coming from an escalation between Ukraine and Russia.
Russia attacked the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv again today, and they have also moved their Navy vessels after Ukraine attacked Crimea. In addition, UK intelligence has warned that Russia may be planting mines with the intention of targeting civilian vessels.
The drought in Argentina that impacted corn and soybean production is ongoing and is now threatening this year’s wheat crop. Argentina is the third largest exporter of wheat.
Export sales were decent for wheat last week with the USDA reporting increases of 10.0 mb for 23/24. Export shipments of 14.3 mb were above the 13.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were the Philippines, Taiwan, and Mexico.

Amanda Brill