TFM Morning Update 10-09-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning with the December contract near its highest levels in a month despite good harvest progress over the weekend.
Israel has declared war on Hamas over the weekend after they attacked the Gaza Strip killing civilians, and now there are fears of fresh tensions between the US and oil-producing Middle Eastern countries.
In Brazil, the first crop corn is reportedly 28% planted, and in Argentina, only 14% planted with conditions still extremely dry.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as buyers of corn by 9,173 contracts, reducing their net short position to 159,433 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after a lower close on Friday which saw November soybeans down by 9 cents on the week. Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning.
The soy complex is benefitting from higher crude oil which is likely a result of the war with Iran reportedly orchestrating the attacks. This may cause tension with the US.
China is back from their Golden Holiday week but found prices on the Dalian exchange sharply lower with November soybeans down 4.3% and at a new two month low.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 25,057 contracts reducing their net long position to a very small 5,001 contracts.

Wheat is trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex as prices continue to rebound from last week’s low.
Support comes from concern about tight world supplies as Argentina and Australia expect smaller crops due to poor weather, and the escalating fight between Ukraine and Russia.
Russia continued its attacks on Ukrainian grain facilities and a port in southern Ukraine as they continued to export their grain through their own corridor in the Black Sea.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials selling 2,396 contracts, increasing their net short position to 98,788 contracts. Funds hold a much larger short position than is typical for this time of year.

Amanda Brill