TFM Midday Update 10-06-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower today after a higher open with pressure coming from the jobs report that showed a higher-than-expected jump. This report caused the US Dollar Index to increase and equities to fall.
Yesterday’s export sales report showing 71.5 mb of corn sold was encouraging and caused December corn to reach its highest levels in one month.
Tensions have heightened further between Russia and Ukraine with Russia attacking the port of Odesa and the interior village of Hroza, killing dozens. Ukrainian exports are down 28% from a year ago with shipping a difficult task.
In South America, both Argentina and northern Brazil are too dry for planting, while southern Brazil is dealing with flooding. 14% of the corn crop in Argentina is planted.

Soybeans are trading lower following a higher open, along with both corn and wheat. The higher-than-expected jobs number caused concerns that the Federal Reserve will increase rates again.
Soybean meal is lower today, while soybean oil is higher, but both products have sold off significantly over the past few weeks, causing crush margins to fall.
Soybean export demand has been hampered by cheaper Brazilian offers, but domestically demand has been firm with record renewable biodiesel production.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River increased last week with barge rates declining, and soybean shipments were up 30.6% week over week.

Wheat prices were sent lower this morning after the Labor Department revealed that 336,000 jobs were added in September, above expectations. This caused the US dollar to rise, and wheat is sensitive to moves in the dollar.
Ukraine is still exporting grain through their own shipping corridor, but Russia appears to be getting more aggressive with reports of mines in the region, and a vessel from Turkey reportedly hitting one of those mines.
The dry weather patterns in Argentina and Australia may significantly impact their wheat crops, and Ukraine is talking about planting less wheat this season, so global supply may drop slightly.
Yesterday’s export sales report was average at just 10 mb, but the fact that China purchased 8.1 mb shows that the US may be getting closer to competitiveness globally.

Amanda Brill