TFM Morning Update 10-11-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report and following yesterday evening’s crop progress report.
The crop progress report was delayed due to Columbus Day, but the corn harvest was called at 34% complete compared to 23% last week, and good to excellent ratings were unchanged at 53%.
Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report have yields slightly lower at 173.7 bpa, and ending stocks slightly lower as well at 2.148 billion bushels.
The USDA’s attaché in Beijing lowered its estimate of Chinese corn imports from 23.0 mmt to 20.0 mmt, and November corn on the Dalian exchange closed at its lowest levels in three months.

Soybeans are slightly lower this morning despite both soybean meal and oil trading higher. Crop progress said that the soybean harvest was ahead of pace for this year.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 43% of the bean crop was harvested compared to 23% last week, with crop ratings down a point to 51% good to excellent.
Average estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report have yields at 50.0 bpa compared to 50.1 bpa last month, but ending stocks are expected to increase slightly to 233 mb from 220 mb last month.
Supplies of soybeans in Brazil appear to be tightening, giving the US a good opportunity to export beans. China has been an active buyer out of the PNW for October through December.

All three wheat contracts are trading lower this morning and are near their lowest prices in two years as the US struggles to find export demand.
Yesterday’s crop progress report said that 57% of winter wheat has been planted compared to 50% last week and 53% a year ago. 29% of the winter wheat has emerged.
UN officials will visit Moscow to continue talks about the Black Sea grain deal, but so far Ukraine doesn’t seem to be running into much trouble exporting grain on their own.
Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report are that wheat ending stocks in the US will increase slightly to 649 mb from 615 mb, but that world ending stocks will decrease slightly as multiple countries deal with adverse weather.

Amanda Brill