TFM Midday Update 10-10-2023

CORN

November corn on China’s Dalian Exchange remains near the lowest price in three months, despite being a little higher on Tuesday.
Brazil’s first corn crop is reported to be about 30% planted, while Argentina’s crop is 15% planted.
Despite uncertainty in the Middle East, the U.S. stock market held up well yesterday and is trading higher at midday with the Dow up about 150 points. However, crude oil is currently trading about 50-60 cents lower per barrel after yesterday’s strong increase.
Midwest farmers should have another one or two days for good harvest progress before there is widespread rain coverage. Weather models have recently shifted the rain a little further north, but much of the Midwest could see 1-3 inches of rain.

November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange traded to the lowest level in two months on Tuesday.
Yesterday it was estimated that spec traders sold about 5,000 contracts of soybean oil, and the sharply higher crude market yesterday was not enough to support veg oil prices.
Brazil’s soybean plantings are said to have reached 10% complete, which is in line with expectations, as well as last year.
Malaysian palm oil stocks rose almost 10% in September but were still slightly below expectations at 2.3 mmt. Production did increase 4% over the previous month, which was in line with expectations.

Despite the tensions in Israel and the Black Sea, all three U.S. wheat classes are sharply lower this morning alongside Paris milling wheat futures. This could be tied to positioning ahead of Thursday’s USDA report, in which wheat stocks are expected to be increased.
Southern Brazil is receiving too much rain, which is likely to impact wheat production and quality in that region. Long range forecasts are predicting better chances for meaningful rain in west / central Brazil, as well as Argentina – areas that will welcome any moisture they can get.
Ag Resource is estimating Argentina’s wheat production to fall to 15.2 mmt versus the USDA’s estimate of 16.5 mmt. Meanwhile, Australia’s crop could be down as much as 50% by some estimates, due to the impacts of El Nino.

Brandon Doherty