TFM Midday Update 10-12-2023

CORN

Private exporters reported sales totaling 124,545 mt of corn for delivery to Guatemala during the 23/24 marketing year.
November corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is near the lowest level in more than three months. This could be due to reported higher than expected production, and there is a chance the USDA could address this on today’s report.
Due to the Columbus holiday this week, export sales are delayed until tomorrow.
While the U.S. corn market remains relatively quiet and in a sideways trend, Brazil continues to ship corn to China and other global destinations, since their corn prices are lower than the U.S.
Strategie Grains increased their estimate of the EU corn crop to 60.6 mmt (up 1 mmt from the previous estimate).

Private exporters reported sales totaling 295,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
November soybeans closed 19 cents lower yesterday, likely due to pre-report positioning.
On Wednesday, November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange hit a new two-month low. On Thursday bean prices were steady, around the equivalent of $16.50 per bushel.
In order to push soybean prices higher, South America may need to see widespread weather problems, beyond what is currently happening. CONAB released their updated estimates for Brazil’s soybean crop. They now estimate it at a record large 162 mmt.

There are rumors that China is looking for U.S. SRW wheat prices out of the Gulf. The U.S. wheat market could definitely use some more export demand and the recent decline in prices may have stimulated some international buying interest.
CPI data this morning came in at 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The U.S. Dollar Index is also sharply higher on the day. This may be in part what is weighing on wheat futures this morning.
As the war in Israel ramps up, and there is still uncertainty in the Black Sea, the wheat market may be choppy for the near future as traders react to the relevant headlines.
It is being reported that in South America, Argentine wheat yields are declining, and quality of Brazilian wheat is also declining due to too much rain in southern regions.
Despite the Russian government’s $270 per mt price floor on wheat exports, there is talk that private Russian offers are as low as $235 per mt.

Brandon Doherty