TFM Midday Update 10-19-2023

CORN

Corn is a bit stronger near midday with December trading slightly higher to the deferred months, as the overall pattern remains mostly rangebound, and December corn being unable to move above 5 dollars.
Other than some light showers from Illinois through to Indiana, the Corn Belt is mostly dry and should allow for good harvest progress this week.
For today’s export sales, the USDA reported an increase of 34.7 mb of corn for 23/24 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 24/25, both in line with expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 20.3 mb were below the 40.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.
China has been purchasing the bulk of its corn from Brazil, but Chinese imports have fallen significantly with corn imports down 10% from a year ago in the January through September period, a decline of 653 mb.

Soybeans began the day higher but have slipped despite a good export sales report. November found resistance at the 100-day moving average near $13.17. Soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower due to losses in palm and crude oil.
This morning, the USDA reported an increase of 50.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, which was in line with expectations. Top purchasers were China, Spain, and Mexico.
Last week’s export shipments of 73.1 mb were well above the 34.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations, and top destinations were also to China, Mexico, and Spain.
Brazilian grain exporters are being forced to re-route some cargoes of grain as the drought lowers water levels on Amazonian rivers causing barges to get stuck.

Wheat is mixed near midday with Chicago trading higher, but KC and Minneapolis are lower. Trade is looking for China to purchase more US wheat, but so far none has come across the wire.
The Australian wheat crop is expected to fall by 40% to 45% this year due to drought, and India’s production is expected to fall as well, which may cause them to become a net importer.
Today, the USDA reported an increase of 23.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 1.1 mb for 24/25, both on the high side of expectations.
Last week’s export shipments of 14.1 mb were just above the 13.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and top destinations were to Japan, Nigeria, and South Korea.

Amanda Brill